One Nation Surpasses Coalition in Historic Poll Shift as Hanson Eyes Government
CANBERRA, 25 January 2026 – Australia’s political landscape has been jolted by a historic opinion poll showing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has overtaken the Liberal-National Coalition, positioning itself as the nation’s second-most popular political movement. The bombshell Newspoll, recording a primary vote of 22 per cent for One Nation against the Coalition’s 21 per cent, signals a dramatic fragmentation of the conservative vote and presents a profound challenge to Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.
A ‘Monumental’ Shift on the Right
The survey of 1,224 voters, published in The Australian, revealed One Nation’s support surged seven percentage points over the summer, while the Coalition’s fell by three. This marks the first time the populist party has outpolled the Coalition in the long-running survey. Political strategist Kos Samaras described the result as a “monumental crisis on the right,” arguing the conservative vote is fragmenting as One Nation “vacuums up the authentic right space that the coalition keeps trying (and failing) to straddle.”
Senator Hanson, seeking to shed One Nation’s fringe-party image, said the result showed voters were looking for a genuine alternative concerned with mass migration, energy prices, and cost of living. “People feel that in cost of living, they’re in a worse situation now than what they were 10 years ago,” she told radio 3AW.
Key Facts: The Polling Data
| Party / Figure | Result |
|---|---|
| One Nation Primary Vote | 22% (up 7 points) |
| Coalition Primary Vote | 21% (down 3 points) |
| Labor Primary Vote | 32% (down 4 points) |
| Two-Party Preferred (Newspoll) | Labor 55% – Coalition 45% |
| Preferred PM (Albanese vs Ley) | 51% – 31% |
Hanson’s Ambition and Joyce’s Defection
Senator Hanson declared her ambition was for One Nation to form government. “You bet it is,” she said when asked if she aimed to build an alternative government. She credited her leadership in recruiting former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce, who defected from the Nationals late last year, as a key factor in the party’s rise. “Wasn’t I smart as a leader to actually get Barnaby across?” she said.
Mr Joyce, now One Nation’s sole lower house representative, said the poll showed people were “sick of being taken for granted.” He rejected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s characterisation of One Nation as a “radical right-wing group,” stating, “It’s not radical if it’s the truth; the truth is the truth.”
Major Parties in Damage Control
The poll heaps pressure on a Coalition already engaged in post-election soul-searching. Liberal Senator Jonathon Duniam conceded the party had “our work cut out for us,” while Shadow Attorney-General Andrew Wallace admitted the numbers were concerning. “What people are telling me is they don’t feel safe anymore. They can’t afford to live,” Mr Wallace said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticised One Nation as a divisive force. “They promote division, and I don’t want to see One Nation with a higher vote than the coalition,” he told ABC Radio Melbourne. In a small silver lining for Ms Ley, a separate Resolve poll found voters rated her response to the Bondi terror attack more favourably than Mr Albanese’s.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has One Nation ever been this high in the polls before?
No. The Newspoll result of 22 per cent is a record high for One Nation in that survey, and the first time it has surpassed the Coalition.
What is driving One Nation’s surge in support?
Analysts and the party itself point to voter frustration over cost of living, mass migration, housing, and social cohesion following the Bondi terror attack. The high-profile defection of Barnaby Joyce has also granted the party increased legitimacy and media attention.
Can One Nation actually win lower house seats?
While historically a Senate-focused party, a primary vote above 20% nationally makes lower house seats mathematically possible, particularly in regional Queensland. Election analyst Antony Green has noted that support in some country electorates could be above 35%, which would place One Nation in a winning position if preferences flow favourably.
How has Pauline Hanson responded to her suspension from the Senate?
Senator Hanson, who was suspended last year for wearing a burqa in the chamber, remains unapologetic. She argues it was not a stunt but a protest against the lack of legislation to ban full-face coverings in public places, stating, “I’m standing my ground.”