Coalition Fractures as Nationals Face Leadership Spill, One Nation Surges in Polls
CANBERRA, 1 February 2026 – Australia’s conservative political landscape is undergoing its most significant realignment in decades, with the historic Coalition split triggering internal revolts, leadership challenges, and a dramatic surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party.
Nationals in Turmoil After Coalition Break
The fallout from the Nationals’ decision to break from the Liberal Party over recent gun reform and hate speech legislation continues to dominate federal politics. Senior Liberals have warned that the split could lead to a Senate “wipeout” for the Nationals at the next election. In response, Nationals MP Colin Boyce has confirmed he will move a spill motion against leader David Littleproud, arguing the party needs new direction. Mr Littleproud has vowed to fight for his position and dismissed reports of meetings with Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley about reuniting the Coalition, stating his focus is on backing his party.
Liberal Leadership Whispers Amidst Conservative Unrest
While the Nationals face internal strife, the Liberal Party is also grappling with leadership tensions. Moderate Liberals have publicly declared they are “rock solid” behind leader Sussan Ley, amid reported canvassing for a challenge by conservative frontbenchers Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie. Some former MPs, like Jason Falinski, have suggested the time apart from the Nationals “certainly benefits” the Liberal Party, allowing it to redefine its platform. The political rupture over the recent bills has exposed deep ideological rifts within the broader conservative movement.
One Nation Capitalises on Discontent
Amid this major party instability, One Nation is experiencing unprecedented poll numbers. Analysis indicates the party, which opposed the recent gun reform laws, is now attracting voters disillusioned with both the Coalition and Labor. A recent Newspoll recorded One Nation on 22% of the national vote, for the first time polling ahead of the combined Coalition on 21%. Political commentators note that financial stress and voter grievance are fuelling this rise, transforming One Nation from a fringe protest party into a “genuine electoral opponent”. United Australia Party founder Clive Palmer, however, has dismissed One Nation’s surge, labelling it a “protest party” and not a viable alternative.
Key Facts & Recent Developments
| Event | Detail |
|---|---|
| Nationals Leadership Spill | MP Colin Boyce to move motion against David Littleproud. Littleproud vows to back party. |
| Liberal Party Stability | Moderates affirm support for Sussan Ley; conservatives Taylor and Hastie canvass support. |
| One Nation Polling | Newspoll shows One Nation at 22%, ahead of Coalition (21%) for the first time. |
| Palmer Donation | Clive Palmer donates an additional A$1 million to Foodbank Australia, building on a A$5 million 2025 contribution. |
| Policy Catalyst | Gun reform and hate speech bills cited as key triggers for the Coalition split and rising support for One Nation. |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Coalition split?
The Liberal-National Coalition fractured after the Nationals opposed recent gun reform and hate speech legislation, which the Liberals supported. This fundamental policy disagreement led the Nationals to formally leave the coalition agreement.
What does One Nation’s poll surge mean?
Pollsters and insiders suggest One Nation’s rise to 22% national support reflects deep voter disillusionment with major parties, exacerbated by cost-of-living pressures. It signals a potential major realignment on the right of Australian politics.
Is the Liberal Party also facing a leadership challenge?
While Leader Sussan Ley has public backing from the party’s moderate wing, senior conservative figures Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are reportedly gauging support for a potential challenge, indicating ongoing internal tension.