Australia Weather Forecast: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for ACT, Sunny Skies Elsewhere
It’s a classic summer’s day across much of Australia this Monday, January 5, 2026, but a stark reminder of our volatile climate is brewing. While Canberra basks in a sunny 29°C, the Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the ACT, threatening heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and large hailstones this evening. This split-screen weather—calm versus chaotic—highlights the need for all Australians to stay alert to official warnings, especially with councils from Victoria to Queensland activating their disaster dashboards.
Beyond today’s immediate forecast, the long-term climate signals point to a complex summer. While some models suggest a drier shift for eastern Australia, the underlying trend of a warming continent continues to influence our weather patterns, increasing the risks of extreme events. Here’s your detailed, location-by-location breakdown of the conditions, warnings, and what you need to know to stay safe.
Current National Weather Snapshot
As of early afternoon, conditions are largely fine and warm across the southeast. However, emergency services are on standby as a severe weather system develops.
| Location | Condition | Temperature | Feels Like | Key Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canberra, ACT | Sunny | 29.0°C | 27.5°C | SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING (from 5:10 pm) |
| Fraser Coast, QLD | N/A | 19.7°C | 21.8°C | Marine Wind Warning for QLD |
| Victoria (General) | Variable | N/A | N/A | Park closures possible (e.g., Herring Island Punt) |
| South Australia (Fire Regions) | N/A | N/A | N/A | No Total Fire Ban for Monday 5 Jan |
Severe Weather Warnings and Alerts
Staying informed through official channels is critical. Multiple agencies are reporting active incidents and warnings.
ACT Emergency Thunderstorm Warning
The most pressing alert comes from the ACT Emergency Services Agency, relaying a Bureau of Meteorology warning issued at 5:10 pm. The severe thunderstorm is likely to produce:
- Heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.
- Large, damaging hailstones.
- Damaging winds.
Residents in the ACT should secure loose items, avoid travel if storms hit, and never drive through floodwaters.
State-Based Disaster Dashboards
Local councils are urging residents to monitor their platforms for real-time updates:
- Whitsunday Regional Council (QLD): Disaster Dashboard provides alerts on bushfires, floods, severe weather, road closures, and power outages.
- Fraser Coast Council (QLD): Disaster dashboard is active, showing current temperatures and a Marine Wind Warning for Queensland waters.
- Parks Victoria: Warns that extreme weather may lead to cancellations, such as the punt operation to Herring Island.
Other Emergency Incidents
Note: A magnitude 5.4 earthquake was recorded in the Papua New Guinea region. This serves as a reminder to be prepared for all hazards. Geoscience Australia is the authoritative source for earthquake information.
Long-Range Summer Outlook 2025-2026
Looking beyond today, climate models present a mixed bag for the remainder of the summer season.
| Region | Rainfall Outlook (Dec ’25 – Feb ’26) | Temperature Outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Australia | Neutral to Drier Change Possible | Likely Warmer | Some forecasts indicate a surprising drier shift late in summer. |
| Victoria | Neutral (Model Consensus) | Likely Warmer | Influenced by warm western Pacific & Indian Ocean patterns. |
| Northern WA & NT | N/A | Likely Below Average Maximums | As per the latest Tropical Climate Update from BoM. |
| Southern Australia | N/A | Hot & Dry Late Summer Risk | Long-term trend points to increased fire weather danger. |
The Climate Change Context
Australia’s weather is occurring against a backdrop of long-term climate change. According to AdaptNSW observations, the nation’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.44 °C since 1910. This warming trend is amplifying extreme weather events, contributing to:
- Increased frequency and length of dangerous fire weather, especially in southern Australia.
- Decreased rainfall in the southwest and southeast over recent decades.
- Increased rainfall trends across northern Australia since the 1970s.
Understanding this context is key to interpreting seasonal forecasts and preparing for a future where weather volatility may be the new norm.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the severe weather warning for Canberra today?
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned of a severe thunderstorm for the ACT from late afternoon (5:10 pm) on Monday, January 5, 2026. It is likely to bring heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, large hailstones, and damaging winds. Residents should monitor the ACT Emergency Services Agency for updates.
Where can I get localised emergency information in Queensland?
Several Queensland councils operate real-time disaster dashboards. The Whitsunday Regional Council and Fraser Coast Council dashboards are excellent resources for weather warnings, road closures, fire incidents, and flood alerts specific to your local area.
What is the long-term summer forecast for Victoria and eastern Australia?
The outlook for December 2025 to February 2026 suggests a neutral rainfall signal but likely warmer-than-average temperatures for Victoria. Some broader forecasts indicate a potential shift to drier conditions in eastern Australia later in the summer, though this remains uncertain. The dominant influence is from very warm ocean temperatures in the Coral Sea and eastern Indian Ocean.
How is climate change affecting Australian weather patterns?
Australia is experiencing clear climate change impacts: a 1.44°C average temperature rise since 1910, more intense heatwaves, longer fire danger seasons in the south, and altered rainfall patterns (drier in the south-west and south-east, wetter in the north). This long-term warming intensifies the severity of individual weather events, like the severe thunderstorms forecast today.