One Nation Ties with Coalition in Historic Poll Surge
Sydney, 9 January 2026 – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has achieved a historic milestone, drawing level with the Coalition on 23 per cent of the primary vote in a new DemosAU poll, while Labor trails at 29 per cent. The surge follows the Bondi Beach attack in December 2025 and reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with the major parties on issues like immigration and cost of living.
Poll Highlights
The DemosAU poll, conducted from 5 to 6 January 2026 among 1,027 Australians, shows One Nation recording a swing of almost 17 per cent since the May 2025 federal election. Nearly one in three Coalition voters from 2025 now indicate support for One Nation, with 11 per cent of Labor voters also switching. The party claims this marks a “monumental result” and a breach of Australia’s entrenched two-party system.
Key Facts / Stats
| Party | Primary Vote (%) | Swing Since May 2025 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 23 | +16.6 |
| Coalition | 23 | -8.8 |
| Labor | 29 | -5.6 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What triggered One Nation’s surge?
The poll surge coincides with the Bondi Beach attack on 14 December 2025, where 15 people were killed, and ongoing debates on immigration, national security, and cost of living. One Nation’s anti-immigration stance and leadership under Pauline Hanson have resonated with voters disillusioned by the major parties.
How reliable is this poll?
The DemosAU poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 per cent. Pollster George Hasanakos noted that while the sample is smaller, it aligns with trends showing One Nation challenging for government, similar to far-right parties in Europe.
What are the implications for the next election?
With One Nation tied with the Coalition, it could hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. The party advocates for policies like cutting immigration to 130,000 visas per year and deporting illegal migrants, potentially influencing Coalition strategies amid internal divisions.